デジタルエコノミー2025:通信およびインターネットエコシステムの未来

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◆英語タイトル:Digital Economy 2025 : The future of Telecom and Internet ecosystems
◆発行会社/調査会社:IDATE
◆商品コード:IDATE60325
◆発行日:2016年1月
◆調査対象地域:グローバル
◆産業分野:IT・通信
◆ページ数:76
◆レポート言語:英語
◆レポート形式:PDF
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*** レポート概要(サマリー)***

This report develops a perspective of where the digital economy, and in particular the telecoms and Internet sectors, might be headed over the next decade, to 2025.
The starting point of the study was to identify key trends that have clearly emerged and major uncertainties, which might push the industry to develop in one direction or another.

Four contrasting yet plausible scenarios for the digital economy industry in 2025 are developed. They are projected against a two-by-two matrix. One axis is the presence of enablers providing specialised solutions, which other companies can leverage to build their own businesses upon. The other dimension is the intensity with which personal data are being used, serving to indicate the range of services which telcos and Internet players will provide.
The report concludes by presenting quantitative projections for each scenario: Mall, Open, Automated and Trust.

*** レポート目次(コンテンツ)***

1. Executive Summary

2. Methodology & definitions
2.1. General methodology of IDATE’s reports
2.2. Definitions
2.3. Scenarios

3. Key trends
3.1. Technologies
3.1.1. Enhanced performance with 5G, LTE, fibre and more
3.1.2. Low-cost sensors
3.1.3. Cloud and virtualisation technologies
3.1.4. More powerful security solutions
3.2. Usages
3.2.1. From offline, to online, and now to mobile
3.2.2. Multiple device ownership and simultaneous use becoming the norm
3.2.3. Free (or at least low-cost) services increasingly becoming the default mindset
3.3. Business Models
3.3.1. Bundling
3.3.2. Segmentation
3.3.3. Disintermediation
3.3.4. Softwarisation
3.3.5. Data monetisation
3.4. Regulation
3.4.1. Transition from ex-ante to ex-post regimes
3.4.2. More symmetric regulation
3.4.3. Geographically differentiated rules
3.5. Consolidation

4. Major uncertainties
4.1. Technology
4.1.1. SDN
4.1.2. Network optimisation
4.1.3. Real network performance
4.1.4. Internet of Things
4.1.5. Big Data
4.1.6. RFID
4.1.7. NFC in mobile phones
4.1.8. Open Standards
4.1.9. 3D Printing
4.2. Players
4.2.1. Consolidation
4.2.2. New players on the Internet market
4.3. Investments
4.3.1. Rural NGA deployment
4.3.2. Access infrastructure in emerging and developing countries
4.3.3. OTTs and infrastructure: rent or internalise
4.4. Business models
4.4.1. Monetisation of personal data
4.4.2. Expansion into verticals
4.4.3. Servicisation
4.4.4. Two-sided business models
4.5. Regulation
4.5.1. Platforms
4.5.2. Privacy vs. law enforcement
4.5.3. Fiscal optimisation
4.6. Usages
4.6.1. Privacy / security concerns
4.6.2. Willingness to pay for Internet services

5. Scenarios for 2025
5.1. Defining dimensions to shape the industry by 2025
5.1.1. Availability of enablers
5.1.2. Intensity of use of personal data
5.2. Scenario matrix
5.3. Mall
5.3.1. Scenario characteristics
5.3.2. Industry structure
5.3.3. Usages
5.3.4. Business Models
5.3.5. Regulation
5.3.6. The moves necessary to attain this scenario
5.4. Open
5.4.1. Scenario characteristics
5.4.2. Industry structure
5.4.3. Usages
5.4.4. Business models
5.4.5. Regulation
5.4.6. The moves necessary to attain this scenario
5.5. Automated
5.5.1. Scenario characteristics
5.5.2. Industry structure
5.5.3. Usages
5.5.4. Business model
5.5.5. Regulation
5.5.6. The moves necessary to attain this scenario
5.6. Trust
5.6.1. Scenario characteristics
5.6.2. Industry structure
5.6.3. Usages
5.6.4. Business models
5.6.5. Regulation
5.6.6. The moves necessary to attain this scenario

6. Signals
6.1. Mall
6.1.1. Diversification (M2M and Big Data)
6.1.2. Internet players open physical outlets
6.1.3. Infrastructure internalisation
6.1.4. Large-scale acquisitions
6.1.5. Associated connected objects (bundles)
6.2. Open
6.2.1. Network APIs
6.2.2. Big data initiatives
6.2.3. Insights and aggregated data sales
6.2.4. MVNOs
6.2.5. HTML5
6.2.6. Standards IoT
6.2.7. VRM / data control tools
6.3. Automated
6.3.1. Self-service
6.3.2. Network outsourcing
6.3.3. Sharing economy / Uberisation
6.3.4. Just-in-time strategy
6.4. Trust
6.4.1. National routing
6.4.2. Encryption
6.4.3. Payment security tools

7. Main results
7.1. Overall market sizing
7.2. Breakdown per category

8. Impact along the value chain
8.1. Mall
8.2. Open
8.3. Automated
8.4. Trust

Figure 1: 2025 scenario matrix
Figure 2: Number of LTE subscribers worldwide, 2012-2019
Figure 3: Adoption of cloud computing, by industry sector
Figure 4: Numbers of Internet users, by access, 2010-2019
Figure 5: Comparison of ownership levels for laptop and desktop computers, tablets and smartphones in selected countries, in October 2014
Figure 6: User willingness to change to a paid ad-free model on favourite site
Figure 7: Verizon and AT&T shared data plans
Figure 8: Time Warner Cable Signature Home
Figure 9: Disintermediation of the value chain
Figure 10: Consolidation drivers/hurdles matrix
Figure 11: Capex and opex reduction from implementation of NEC SDN solution (programmableFlow)
Figure 12: Standards initiatives relevant to the Smart Home
Figure 13: 3D printing main barriers
Figure 14: High-tech acquisitions by Google, Apple, Facebook and Amazon
Figure 15: Top Internet companies by market cap as of May 2015, together with top Internet start-up valuations
Figure 16: FTTH cost per home passed by type of area (EUR/hh)
Figure 17: Rural fixed broadband coverage
Figure 18: Facebook Internet drone concept
Figure 19: Amazon AWS cloud infrastructure locations
Figure 20: Growth of ad-blocking software users worldwide
Figure 21: Google attempts at territorial expansion
Figure 22: The automotive value chain and business activities for stakeholders
Figure 23: Spotify premium and free users
Figure 24: Members of Reform Government Surveillance coalition, in April 2015
Figure 25: Number of VoD providers in selected European countries
Figure 26: World's largest security breaches, as of October 2015
Figure 27: Frequently used online services: comparison of their use and trust levels (2015 survey)
Figure 28: Potential ways in which user can add more security and data over their data
Figure 29: The Ghostery browser extension giving browsers more control
Figure 30: User perception on whether they should be given the option to pay for services or receive them free in exchange for personal data and, should such an option exist, which they would take
Figure 31: Scenario matrix
Figure 32: Telcos upgrading their shops to 'Apple-like' look and feel
Figure 33: From traditional silos in M2M to a consolidated data usage
Figure 34: Amazon book store
Figure 35: Acquisition strategies, by Internet giants
Figure 36: A Samsung Galaxy smartphone offer bundled with Galaxy Gear smart watch
Figure 37: Communication APIs available from operators
Figure 38: i-concier service by NTT DOCOMO
Figure 39: Steps of the ladder of non-MNO-branded mobile offers
Figure 40: The Datacoup dashboard
Figure 41: Virgin Media: seven steps to select the most adequate package
Figure 42: Top Internet companies by market cap as of December 2015, together with top Internet start-up valuations
Figure 43: The 'e-mail made in Germany' consortium
Figure 44: Satisfaction and usage of Mobile BankID
Figure 45: WhatsApp Q&A stating that the messages are encrypted
Figure 46: The anatomy of an Apple Pay transaction
Figure 47: Worldwide market sizing for telecom and Internet services
Figure 48: Worldwide market sizing for telecom and Internet services
Figure 49: US market sizing for telecom and Internet services
Figure 50: EU5 market sizing for telecom and Internet services
Figure 51: Worldwide market sizing for telecom/access services
Figure 52: Worldwide market sizing for telecom/access services
Figure 53: Worldwide market sizing for Internet services
Figure 54: Worldwide market sizing for Internet services
Figure 55: Mobile data revenues in 2014, with forecasts for 2025 for the four scenarios
Figure 56: Paid VoD world revenues in 2014, with forecasts for 2025 for the four scenarios
Figure 57: Paid digital contents (music and eBooks) world revenues in 2014, with forecasts for 2025 for the four scenarios
Figure 58: Consumer fixed data revenues in 2014, with forecasts for 2025 for the four scenarios
Figure 59: IoT services world revenues in 2014, with forecasts for 2025 for the four scenarios
Figure 60: Big data, RTB and social ads world revenues in 2014, with forecasts for 2025 for the four scenarios
Figure 61: Cloud world revenues in 2014, with forecasts for 2025 for the four scenarios
Figure 62: Corporate fixed data revenues in 2014, with forecasts for 2025 for the four scenarios,
Figure 63: E-commerce world revenues in 2014, with forecasts for 2025 for the four scenarios
Figure 64: Online security world revenues in 2014, with forecasts for 2025 for the four scenarios

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